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North Texas Real Estate Market – Still Hot or Cooling Off?

Since the start in 2014, real estate in North Texas, as most know, has been a hot commodity.  However, the end of summer is quickly approaching which would perhaps suggest a slowdown in the market, but is the market slowing down in North Texas?  To answer that, we turn to data provided by our MLS system here in North Texas (NETRIS) and take a look at the trends of the four major counties in North Texas; Dallas, Denton, Collin, & Tarrant.  This information has not been filter by any particular category and includes all property type, year built, square footage, construction type, and price range.

Dallas County

The average home price in Dallas County for the month of August was around $267,000, which is up from the beginning of 2014 of approximately $234,000.  However, this is down from the previous few months and is in fact the lowest average home price since January 2014.  Dallas County’s average home prices peaked in May 2014 at around $298,000. Days on market (DOM) is another good indicator of how well homes are selling.  In August of this year, Dallas County’s average days on market was 44 days.  This is up slightly from the previous month with June 2014 having the lowest days on market of 37 days and February having the highest days on market this year of 57 days.  Supply of homes in Dallas County has been relatively stable in 2014.  It has ranged from 2.5 months in February and March of this year to a high of about 3 months in August.

Denton County

Denton County’s average home price in August 2014 was right around $264,000, which again is up from the beginning of 2014 where the average home price was about $240,000 in January.  This is down from the prior few months where the peak of home prices for the year was around $275,000 in June. Average days on market for homes in Denton County has begun to slowly increase and was at 20 days in August, which is up from the 14 days on market in July.  The least number of days on market in 2014 was 13 days in June, whereas January had the most number of days on market with 35 days.  The average supply of homes in Denton County has fluctuated very little in 2014.  In August, Denton County saw its largest supply of homes in 2014 with right around 2.7 months of supply.  Average supply of homes in Denton County started out at 2 months worth in January and has slowly crept up since.

Collin County

Collin County’s average home price for August 2014 was about $302,000, which is slightly down from the peak of 2014 in July at $303,000.  The average home price has been on the rise in 2014 where January had the lowest average home price of right around $255,000.  Average days on market for homes in Collin County for August was 34 days which is up a little over the past couple months. June had the lowest average days on market which was 30 days, whereas February had the highest average number of days on the market with 47 days.  The average supply of homes in Collin County has had a steady increase throughout the year.  The year started at the lowest average supply of homes at 1.7 months in January 2014 and as of August it is at its highest for the year at 2.3 months.

Tarrant County

The average home price in Tarrant County for the month of August was approximately $225,000, which is slightly up from July’s average home price of $221,000.  Augusts’ average home price is down a bit from the highest average prices this year in June of around $228,000, but it is quite a bit up from the low of the year back in January at around $188,000. Tarrant County’s average days on market in August was 45 days, which is up from prior month’s days on market of 39 days that has been the low of 2014.  The average supply of homes in Tarrant County was at its highest for the year in August at 2.8 months.  The average supply of homes in Tarrant County started the year out at 2.5 months and has been as low as 2.4 in March.

Avg Home Prices Graph

The trends around North Texas would indicate that the real estate market could be slowing down just a bit.  However, I believe the North Texas market is still a very strong and active market with the average home prices still toward the higher end of what we have seen in the last few years.  Therefore, in my opinion the North Texas real estate market is still hot for the moment.  Keep in mind that real estate is cyclical and we have already entered into phase 2 of expansion from phase 1 of recovery.  Phase 2 occurs when all supply has been bought up or rented.  As more and more builders/homeowners catch up to this and add to supply through new construction and resale, we will enter the 3rd phase of hypersupply.  As demand dies down or other economic factors that effect and hurt demand, we will gradually fall into the 4th phase of recession.  Savvy real estate investors will wait for this phase to buy up properties at a discount, while homeowners looking to sell will cash in along the upward curve in phase 2 with little supply to compete with.

by GREYSON JOHNSON, agent @ R.E.INVEST Brokerage, LLC. on September 12, 2014

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